Washington Wizards at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints24
- Tyus JonesAssists15
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints41
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–113
- Q40.0(00:00) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)109–113
- Q43.1Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 2 of 2109–113
- Q43.1Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 1 of 2109–112
- Q43.1Landry Shamet personal take foul109–111
- Q45.0Landry Shamet makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)109–111
- Q46.1Landry Shamet enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly106–111
- Q46.1Wizards Full timeout106–111
- Q46.1OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2106–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:10Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)WSH 69 – 71 NY · NY 62% → 73% +10NY 62% → 73%+10 pts
- Q31:48Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 72 – 71 NY · WSH 28% → 38% +10WSH 28% → 38%+10 pts
- Q411:23Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)WSH 72 – 76 NY · NY 68% → 79% +10NY 68% → 79%+10 pts
- Q47:52Landry Shamet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 83 – 84 NY · WSH 21% → 33% +13WSH 21% → 33%+13 pts
- Q45:42Jalen Brunson makes driving layup (Julius Randle assists)WSH 85 – 88 NY · NY 66% → 76% +10NY 66% → 76%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -11
- NY 85%
- Fair odds
- NY -343
- WSH +343 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 111.4 – 120.8 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −53 | +52 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +307 Elo | NY 85.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 115.017th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.3 | Points allowed | 110.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.8 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 115.611th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 111.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.8 | Pace | 99.426th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–18 | Road vs home | 12–511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.