Houston Rockets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints24
- Fred VanVleetAssists12
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–109
- Q421.0Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot driving dunk (Fred VanVleet assists)94–109
- Q427.0Jeff Green defensive rebound92–109
- Q429.0Quentin Grimes misses 18-foot jumper92–109
- Q431.2Quentin Grimes offensive rebound92–109
- Q433.1Quentin Grimes misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot92–109
- Q449.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 192–109
- Q449.1Precious Achiuwa shooting foul91–109
- Q449.1Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)91–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:01Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 40 – 40 NY · HOU 29% → 36% +7HOU 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q311:39Julius Randle makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)HOU 46 – 51 NY · NY 68% → 76% +7NY 68% → 76%+7 pts
- Q310:13Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 51 – 54 NY · HOU 22% → 29% +7HOU 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q39:27OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)HOU 53 – 57 NY · NY 65% → 73% +8NY 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q38:56OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)HOU 53 – 60 NY · NY 73% → 80% +7NY 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 75%
- Fair odds
- NY -211
- HOU +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 109.9 – 115.5 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +36 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +189 Elo | NY 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.7 | Points scored | 115.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 111.36th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 115.711th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.526th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–14 | Road vs home | 11–511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.