Orlando Magic at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints20
- Markelle FultzAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Knicks- Miles McBridePoints20
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–94
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound98–94
- Q41.0Donte DiVincenzo misses 25-foot three point shot98–94
- Q41.0Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound98–94
- Q48.0Miles McBride misses 25-foot three point jumper98–94
- Q413.0Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound98–94
- Q416.0Paolo Banchero misses free throw 2 of 298–94
- Q416.0Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 298–94
- Q416.0Miles McBride personal take foul97–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:27Chuma Okeke makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 88 – 89 NY · ORL 22% → 39% +18ORL 22% → 39%+18 pts
- Q43:42Cole Anthony makes tip shotORL 90 – 89 NY · ORL 39% → 54% +15ORL 39% → 54%+15 pts
- Q42:11Paolo Banchero makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Markelle Fultz assists)ORL 92 – 89 NY · ORL 57% → 75% +18ORL 57% → 75%+18 pts
- Q41:37Paolo Banchero makes 14-foot running pullup jump shot (Markelle Fultz assists)ORL 94 – 89 NY · ORL 79% → 91% +13ORL 79% → 91%+13 pts
- Q41:30Miles McBride makes 3-foot two point shotORL 94 – 91 NY · NY 8% → 20% +13NY 8% → 20%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5.5
- NY 71%
- Fair odds
- NY -171
- ORL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.7 – 113.8 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +6 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Jalen Brunson −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone and NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +156 Elo | NY 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 115.615th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 111.66th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +4.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 115.910th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 111.910th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.2 | Pace | 99.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 19th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 11–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+6 Elo- Jalen Brunson left calf contusion−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.