Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints20
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–112
- Q47.1shot clock turnover100–112
- Q430.1Josh Giddey defensive rebound100–112
- Q431.2Paolo Banchero misses free throw 2 of 2100–112
- Q431.2Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2100–112
- Q431.2Luguentz Dort personal foul99–112
- Q439.1Chuma Okeke defensive rebound99–112
- Q441.0Josh Giddey misses free throw 2 of 299–112
- Q441.0Cason Wallace enters the game for Jalen Williams99–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:23Caleb Houstan makes 23-foot three point shot (Trevelin Queen assists)ORL 19 – 16 OKC · ORL 25% → 31% +6ORL 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q39:02Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caleb Houstan assists)ORL 52 – 56 OKC · ORL 15% → 21% +6ORL 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q38:11Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)ORL 54 – 61 OKC · OKC 79% → 85% +6OKC 79% → 85%+6 pts
- Q33:27Caleb Houstan makes 23-foot three point shot (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 69 – 76 OKC · ORL 9% → 14% +5ORL 9% → 14%+5 pts
- Q351.1Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ORL 71 – 81 OKC · OKC 86% → 92% +6OKC 86% → 92%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9.5
- OKC 82%
- Fair odds
- OKC -336
- ORL +336 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.8 – 121.0 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +108 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +266 Elo | OKC 82.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.8 | Points scored | 122.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +9.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 119.33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 110.56th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.29th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 15–57th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+108 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.