New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints24
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds20
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints20
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists8
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–94
- Q41.2shot clock turnover106–94
- Q425.1Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound106–94
- Q429.1Xavier Tillman misses 4-foot two point shot106–94
- Q438.0Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2106–94
- Q438.0Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2105–94
- Q438.0David Roddy personal take foul104–94
- Q450.1Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound104–94
- Q453.1Luke Kennard misses 27-foot three point jumper104–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:14GG Jackson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)NY 21 – 25 MEM · MEM 37% → 44% +7MEM 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q24:09Luke Kennard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)NY 44 – 45 MEM · MEM 32% → 39% +8MEM 32% → 39%+8 pts
- Q23:47Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 47 – 45 MEM · NY 60% → 68% +8NY 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q37:01OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 69 – 65 MEM · NY 64% → 73% +9NY 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q33:54Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 76 – 69 MEM · NY 73% → 81% +8NY 73% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 74%
- Fair odds
- NY -202
- MEM +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.7 – 109.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | −63 | NY: Missing Jalen Brunson −43 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Desmond Bane −34, Jaren Jackson Jr. −24, Santi Aldama −6 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +178 Elo | NY 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 108.429th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 113.613th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −5.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 106.329th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 3–1428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+1 Elo- Jalen Brunson left calf contusion−43 Elo
Grizzlies
−63 Elo- Desmond Bane sprained left ankle−34 Elo
- Jaren Jackson Jr. right knee contusion−24 Elo
- Santi Aldama left knee contusion−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.