LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints37
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points21
- Jacob GilyardAssists8
- Xavier TillmanRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–119
- Q418.1Ziaire Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)128–119
- Q419.2GG Jackson offensive rebound128–116
- Q423.1Jake LaRavia misses 26-foot three point jumper128–116
- Q433.1Jordan Miller makes tip shot128–116
- Q433.1Jordan Miller offensive rebound126–116
- Q434.0Kobe Brown misses driving layup126–116
- Q443.1Jordan Miller offensive rebound126–116
- Q448.0Brandon Boston Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper126–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:24Xavier Tillman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)LAC 9 – 14 MEM · MEM 42% → 49% +7MEM 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q12:09Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 19 – 22 MEM · LAC 48% → 55% +7LAC 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q211:23David Roddy makes 23-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)LAC 25 – 29 MEM · MEM 41% → 48% +7MEM 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q211:10Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 28 – 29 MEM · LAC 52% → 59% +7LAC 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q28:53Luke Kennard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)LAC 36 – 34 MEM · MEM 28% → 34% +7MEM 28% → 34%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 70%
- Fair odds
- LAC -172
- MEM +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.1 – 109.9 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +100 | −4 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Santi Aldama −3 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +143 Elo | LAC 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 108.129th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 113.213th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 105.929th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 110.89th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.511th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 3–1327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−4 Elo- Santi Aldama left knee contusion−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.