Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Alec BurksPoints34
- Jaden IveyAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds19
Wizards- Tyus JonesPoints22
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–117
- Q417.1Anthony Gill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)129–117
- Q423.0Kevin Knox II enters the game for Jalen Duren129–114
- Q423.0Wizards offensive team rebound129–114
- Q423.0Jaden Ivey blocks Anthony Gill 's 1-foot two point shot129–114
- Q427.1Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound129–114
- Q431.0Jaden Ivey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot129–114
- Q444.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound129–114
- Q450.1Bilal Coulibaly misses 25-foot three point jumper129–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:40Delon Wright makes 25-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)DET 94 – 90 WSH · WSH 29% → 41% +12WSH 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q411:07Landry Shamet makes 26-foot three pointer (Patrick Baldwin Jr. assists)DET 96 – 93 WSH · WSH 32% → 45% +12WSH 32% → 45%+12 pts
- Q410:27Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)DET 98 – 96 WSH · WSH 36% → 49% +13WSH 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q49:57Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 101 – 96 WSH · DET 52% → 65% +13DET 52% → 65%+13 pts
- Q48:17Corey Kispert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)DET 106 – 99 WSH · WSH 14% → 24% +10WSH 14% → 24%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -6
- WSH 72%
- Fair odds
- WSH -192
- DET +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 117.8 – 122.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1304 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | −19 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +168 Elo | WSH 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 65.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 115.516th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 125.230th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.4 | Margin | −9.727th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 110.125th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.0 | Defense rating | 119.430th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 104.82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–19 | Road vs home | 3–1327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.