San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- Tre JonesAssists11
- Jeremy SochanRebounds7
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints24
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Luke KornetRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–117
- Q42.1Jordan Walsh defensive rebound98–117
- Q43.1Dominick Barlow misses 23-foot three point jumper98–117
- Q416.2shot clock turnover98–117
- Q440.2Mamadi Diakite makes 2-foot dunk (Blake Wesley assists)98–117
- Q444.1Devonte' Graham defensive rebound96–117
- Q446.1Jordan Walsh misses 28-foot three point jumper96–117
- Q41:06Jordan Walsh defensive rebound96–117
- Q41:08Devonte' Graham misses 23-foot three point shot96–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:07Jrue Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)SA 7 – 8 BOS · BOS 74% → 79% +5BOS 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q19:53Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Tre Jones assists)SA 10 – 8 BOS · SA 21% → 26% +5SA 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q18:30Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 13 – 12 BOS · SA 20% → 25% +5SA 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q18:11Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three pointerSA 13 – 15 BOS · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:52Jaylen Brown makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotSA 15 – 18 BOS · BOS 77% → 81% +5BOS 77% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11.5
- BOS 87%
- Fair odds
- BOS -352
- SA +352 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.8 – 122.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +23 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +325 Elo | BOS 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 77.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.2 | Points scored | 121.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.4 | Points allowed | 111.35th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +9.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 119.22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.0 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 304–16 | Road vs home | 19–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.