Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jrue HolidayPoints22
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints24
- Thaddeus YoungAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–96
- Q421.1shot clock turnover105–96
- Q443.1Derrick White defensive rebound105–96
- Q445.1Immanuel Quickley misses two point shot105–96
- Q450.1Payton Pritchard enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis105–96
- Q450.1Raptors Full timeout105–96
- Q450.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2105–96
- Q450.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2104–96
- Q450.1Scottie Barnes personal foul103–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:54Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 64 – 60 TOR · BOS 62% → 71% +8BOS 62% → 71%+8 pts
- Q332.1Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 84 – 75 TOR · BOS 79% → 86% +8BOS 79% → 86%+8 pts
- Q46:02Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumperBOS 97 – 88 TOR · BOS 84% → 93% +8BOS 84% → 93%+8 pts
- Q42:00Scottie Barnes makes driving layup (Immanuel Quickley assists)BOS 100 – 96 TOR · TOR 5% → 14% +8TOR 5% → 14%+8 pts
- Q41:17Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 103 – 96 TOR · BOS 91% → 99% +8BOS 91% → 99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Fair odds
- BOS -177
- TOR +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.8 – 117.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +58 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | TOR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +182 Elo | BOS 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.4 | Points scored | 115.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 117.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+9.8 | Margin | −1.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 114.015th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 115.622nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 9–921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.