San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints25
- Jeremy SochanAssists8
- Jeremy SochanRebounds8
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints28
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Brandon MillerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–124
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound120–124
- Q40.0Tre Jones misses 66-foot three point pullup jump shot120–124
- Q41.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2120–124
- Q41.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 1 of 2120–123
- Q41.1Keldon Johnson personal take foul120–122
- Q42.0Devin Vassell makes 30-foot three point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)120–122
- Q45.0Spurs Full timeout117–122
- Q45.0Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2117–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:12Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)SA 110 – 115 CHA · CHA 66% → 85% +18CHA 66% → 85%+18 pts
- Q42:29P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)SA 112 – 118 CHA · CHA 76% → 92% +16CHA 76% → 92%+16 pts
- Q42:05Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 115 – 118 CHA · SA 6% → 22% +16SA 6% → 22%+16 pts
- Q41:22Zach Collins makes 2-foot two point shotSA 117 – 118 CHA · SA 17% → 37% +20SA 17% → 37%+20 pts
- Q426.1LaMelo Ball makes two point shotSA 117 – 120 CHA · CHA 71% → 95% +24CHA 71% → 95%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- CHA 46%
- Fair odds
- CHA -112
- SA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.3 – 115.1 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1335 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −38 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +28 Elo | SA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 108.428th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 120.425th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−9.4 | Margin | −12.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 107.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 119.830th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 99.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–17 | Road vs home | 4–1326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.