Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints24
- Derrick WhiteAssists5
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–100
- Q42.0Jamal Murray defensive rebound102–100
- Q43.0Jayson Tatum misses 17-foot two point shot102–100
- Q44.2Celtics Full timeout102–100
- Q413.1Celtics Full timeout102–100
- Q417.0Nikola Jokic vs. Kristaps Porzingis (Jayson Tatum gains possession)102–100
- Q417.0Nikola Jokic double lane violation102–100
- Q417.0Jaylen Brown double lane violation102–100
- Q417.0Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2102–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:12Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)DEN 95 – 94 BOS · BOS 32% → 48% +17BOS 32% → 48%+17 pts
- Q43:36Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 99 – 98 BOS · DEN 39% → 55% +15DEN 39% → 55%+15 pts
- Q42:50Michael Porter Jr. makes 5-foot two point shotDEN 101 – 98 BOS · DEN 56% → 72% +16DEN 56% → 72%+16 pts
- Q41:41Jayson Tatum makes 1-foot driving dunkDEN 101 – 100 BOS · BOS 22% → 41% +19BOS 22% → 41%+19 pts
- Q417.0Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 102 – 100 BOS · DEN 74% → 91% +16DEN 74% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 68%
- Fair odds
- BOS -156
- DEN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.8 – 117.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +105 | +75 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +134 Elo | BOS 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 120.95th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 110.95th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +10.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 119.22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 109.42nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 20–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.