Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints62
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Kevin DurantRebounds7
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints31
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Obi ToppinRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–133
- Q40.1Suns offensive team rebound131–133
- Q40.1Devin Booker misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot131–133
- Q43.1Pacers Full timeout131–133
- Q43.1Suns Full timeout131–133
- Q43.1Obi Toppin makes layup131–133
- Q45.1Obi Toppin offensive rebound131–131
- Q45.1Pascal Siakam misses tip shot131–131
- Q45.1Pascal Siakam offensive rebound131–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:59Andrew Nembhard makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotPHX 129 – 127 IND · IND 14% → 29% +15IND 14% → 29%+15 pts
- Q41:23Andrew Nembhard makes 11-foot pullup jump shotPHX 129 – 129 IND · IND 26% → 48% +23IND 26% → 48%+23 pts
- Q456.1Devin Booker makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 131 – 129 IND · PHX 51% → 78% +27PHX 51% → 78%+27 pts
- Q447.2Andrew Nembhard makes driving layupPHX 131 – 131 IND · IND 20% → 49% +29IND 20% → 49%+29 pts
- Q43.1Obi Toppin makes layupPHX 131 – 133 IND · IND 50% → >99% +50IND 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 60%
- Fair odds
- PHX -143
- IND +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 122.6 – 119.9 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +75 | +13 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +67 Elo | PHX 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 124.52nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 122.929th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 118.84th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 117.226th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 104.91st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 14–915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.