Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints46
- Bradley BealAssists7
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–109
- Q48.1shot clock turnover132–109
- Q433.1A.J. Lawson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)132–109
- Q439.1Jaden Hardy defensive rebound132–106
- Q442.0Nassir Little misses 25-foot step back jumpshot132–106
- Q450.1Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (A.J. Lawson assists)132–106
- Q41:00Yuta Watanabe makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)132–103
- Q41:14Chimezie Metu defensive rebound130–103
- Q41:16Brandon Williams misses free throw 1 of 1130–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:48Devin Booker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 22 – 25 DAL · PHX 41% → 48% +7PHX 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q12:27Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotPHX 22 – 28 DAL · DAL 52% → 59% +7DAL 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q11:27Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Dante Exum assists)PHX 25 – 31 DAL · DAL 52% → 59% +7DAL 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q21:05Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 55 – 56 DAL · PHX 43% → 51% +9PHX 43% → 51%+9 pts
- Q311:05Bradley Beal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 63 – 58 DAL · PHX 60% → 68% +8PHX 60% → 68%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 62%
- Fair odds
- PHX -125
- DAL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 119.4 – 117.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +77 | 0 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +86 Elo | PHX 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 118.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 117.420th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.913th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 115.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 114.718th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 13–1019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.