Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints39
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Luka DoncicRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–110
- Q420.0Al Horford defensive rebound119–110
- Q422.2Maxi Kleber misses 23-foot three point jumper119–110
- Q434.0Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2119–110
- Q434.0Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2118–110
- Q434.0Luka Doncic personal foul117–110
- Q449.2Kyrie Irving makes driving layup (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)117–110
- Q456.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2117–108
- Q456.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2116–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:26Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 35 – 32 DAL · BOS 51% → 58% +7BOS 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q21:04Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)BOS 62 – 57 DAL · DAL 28% → 35% +8DAL 28% → 35%+8 pts
- Q236.0Jaylen Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 65 – 57 DAL · BOS 65% → 73% +8BOS 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q311:04Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 68 – 61 DAL · BOS 63% → 71% +8BOS 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q45:01Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotBOS 103 – 96 DAL · DAL 5% → 13% +8DAL 5% → 13%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.3 – 118.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1650 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | +34 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +102 Elo | BOS 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.3 | Points scored | 118.57th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 117.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+9.7 | Margin | +1.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 115.89th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 114.717th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.0 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 13–917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.