Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints32
- Jaylen BrownAssists10
- Derrick WhiteRebounds11
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints25
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Amen ThompsonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–107
- Q41.0Amen Thompson out of bounds bad pass turnover115–107
- Q44.1Amen Thompson defensive rebound116–107
- Q44.1Jayson Tatum misses free throw 2 of 2116–107
- Q44.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2116–107
- Q44.1Amen Thompson personal take foul115–107
- Q46.0Amen Thompson makes dunk (Jalen Green assists)115–107
- Q413.1Oshae Brissett makes driving layup (Jaylen Brown assists)115–105
- Q418.0Alperen Sengun makes tip shot113–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:25Aaron Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)BOS 85 – 80 HOU · HOU 13% → 20% +7HOU 13% → 20%+7 pts
- Q410:13Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point shot (Aaron Holiday assists)BOS 93 – 88 HOU · HOU 11% → 19% +8HOU 11% → 19%+8 pts
- Q49:13Dillon Brooks makes two point shotBOS 93 – 90 HOU · HOU 19% → 26% +7HOU 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q47:58Kristaps Porzingis makes 11-foot two point shotBOS 95 – 90 HOU · BOS 74% → 82% +8BOS 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q47:36Payton Pritchard makes 22-foot three point shot (Sam Hauser assists)BOS 98 – 90 HOU · BOS 82% → 90% +8BOS 82% → 90%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Fair odds
- BOS -292
- HOU +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.2 – 110.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1647 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +78 | −26 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +261 Elo | BOS 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 112.622nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 112.010th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+9.7 | Margin | +0.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 111.222nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 110.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 16–69th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.