Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints33
- Kris DunnAssists7
- Jordan ClarksonRebounds12
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints37
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game126–127
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime126–127
- OT2.1Jazz offensive team rebound126–127
- OT2.2Jordan Clarkson misses running pullup jump shot126–127
- OT8.1Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound126–127
- OT8.1Alperen Sengun misses free throw 2 of 2126–127
- OT8.1Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Jeff Green126–127
- OT8.1Amen Thompson enters the game for Jalen Green126–127
- OT8.1Rockets offensive team rebound126–127
- OT8.1Alperen Sengun misses free throw 1 of 2126–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:13Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot three pointerUTAH 112 – 113 HOU · UTAH 23% → 45% +22UTAH 23% → 45%+22 pts
- Q41:32Jordan Clarkson makes 9-foot pullup jump shotUTAH 115 – 113 HOU · UTAH 52% → 74% +22UTAH 52% → 74%+22 pts
- Q420.0Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2UTAH 115 – 115 HOU · HOU 26% → 49% +23HOU 26% → 49%+23 pts
- OT2:45Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 123 – 119 HOU · UTAH 61% → 83% +21UTAH 61% → 83%+21 pts
- OT52.0Alperen Sengun makes layup (Jalen Green assists)UTAH 126 – 125 HOU · HOU 11% → 34% +22HOU 11% → 34%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -4.5
- UTAH 67%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -158
- HOU +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.1 – 114.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +77 | −21 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +121 Elo | UTAH 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 112.324th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 111.79th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 111.221st of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 110.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.0 | Pace | 100.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–15 | Road vs home | 15–610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.