Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Josh GiddeyRebounds10
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints31
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–129
- Q40.0Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound134–129
- Q41.1Chet Holmgren misses free throw 2 of 2134–129
- Q41.1Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2134–129
- Q41.1Simone Fontecchio personal foul133–129
- Q42.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound133–129
- Q44.1Jordan Clarkson misses 12-foot jump bank shot133–129
- Q45.1Jordan Clarkson offensive rebound133–129
- Q48.1Simone Fontecchio misses 27-foot three point jumper133–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:12Collin Sexton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)OKC 91 – 87 UTAH · UTAH 28% → 38% +9UTAH 28% → 38%+9 pts
- Q32:48Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 94 – 91 UTAH · OKC 49% → 60% +11OKC 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q45:00Jalen Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 121 – 113 UTAH · OKC 78% → 90% +11OKC 78% → 90%+11 pts
- Q42:39Lauri Markkanen makes 3-foot dunk (Simone Fontecchio assists)OKC 124 – 120 UTAH · UTAH 9% → 19% +10UTAH 9% → 19%+10 pts
- Q42:23Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot pullup jump shotOKC 126 – 120 UTAH · OKC 82% → 92% +10OKC 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -0.5
- UTAH 52%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -110
- OKC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 120.0 – 120.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +101 | +73 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +11 Elo | UTAH 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.9 | Points scored | 116.812th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 118.222nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | −1.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 113.516th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 114.919th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 15–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.