Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints25
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Isaiah JoeRebounds6
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints38
- James HardenAssists8
- Daniel TheisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–128
- Q48.1shot clock turnover117–128
- Q431.2Ousmane Dieng bad pass (Paul George steals)117–128
- Q443.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound117–128
- Q445.2Paul George misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot117–128
- Q41:06Luguentz Dort out of bounds lost ball turnover117–128
- Q41:06Olivier Sarr enters the game for Chet Holmgren117–128
- Q41:06Ousmane Dieng enters the game for Jalen Williams117–128
- Q41:06Cason Wallace enters the game for Luguentz Dort117–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:51Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)OKC 107 – 111 LAC · LAC 58% → 75% +16LAC 58% → 75%+16 pts
- Q44:18Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 112 – 113 LAC · OKC 23% → 41% +18OKC 23% → 41%+18 pts
- Q43:37Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 115 – 114 LAC · OKC 33% → 56% +22OKC 33% → 56%+22 pts
- Q43:21Paul George makes 9-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)OKC 115 – 116 LAC · LAC 44% → 60% +16LAC 44% → 60%+16 pts
- Q42:29Paul George makes 29-foot step back jumpshotOKC 115 – 121 LAC · LAC 77% → 92% +15LAC 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 58%
- Fair odds
- LAC -134
- OKC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.2 – 119.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +98 | +70 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +57 Elo | LAC 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.1 | Points scored | 117.49th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 111.99th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.7 | Margin | +5.55th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 117.76th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 16–45th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.