LA Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- Russell WestbrookAssists13
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints33
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–109
- Q40.0Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound105–109
- Q41.2Russell Westbrook misses two point shot105–109
- Q411.1Anthony Edwards bad pass (Kawhi Leonard steals)105–109
- Q415.1Timberwolves Full timeout105–109
- Q415.1Mike Conley enters the game for Rudy Gobert105–109
- Q415.1Timberwolves Full timeout105–109
- Q415.1Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2105–109
- Q415.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Mike Conley104–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:05Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 38 – 37 MIN · LAC 43% → 51% +8LAC 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q21:48Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 41 – 41 MIN · LAC 40% → 48% +8LAC 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q21:21Mike Conley makes 29-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)LAC 41 – 44 MIN · MIN 52% → 60% +8MIN 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q35:12Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 59 – 66 MIN · LAC 18% → 26% +8LAC 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q41:10Norman Powell makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (James Harden assists)LAC 100 – 103 MIN · LAC 2% → 16% +13LAC 2% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- LAC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.7 – 112.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +77 | +53 | LAC: Missing Ivica Zubac −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +1 Elo | LAC 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 113.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 107.41st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.7 | Margin | +5.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 106.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.023rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 15–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+77 Elo- Ivica Zubac right calf−25 Elo
Timberwolves
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.