Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints25
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints27
- Austin ReavesAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–112
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound105–112
- Q40.1Luguentz Dort misses 24-foot three point jumper105–112
- Q42.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q42.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2105–111
- Q42.1Chet Holmgren personal foul105–110
- Q44.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 2-foot dunk (Chet Holmgren assists)105–110
- Q411.0Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2103–110
- Q411.0Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for D'Angelo Russell103–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:40Jalen Williams makes 29-foot three pointer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 65 – 65 LAL · OKC 49% → 58% +10OKC 49% → 58%+10 pts
- Q33:46Ousmane Dieng makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 72 – 73 LAL · OKC 43% → 54% +11OKC 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q33:23LeBron James makes 28-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)OKC 72 – 76 LAL · LAL 46% → 57% +11LAL 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q32:22Rui Hachimura makes 27-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)OKC 74 – 79 LAL · LAL 50% → 61% +11LAL 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q47:45Vasilije Micic makes 25-foot three pointer (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 87 – 93 LAL · OKC 15% → 26% +11OKC 15% → 26%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 72%
- Fair odds
- OKC -173
- LAL +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.2 – 117.1 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +107 | +6 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +163 Elo | OKC 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 63.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.5 | Points scored | 114.318th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 115.616th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.1 | Margin | −1.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 110.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.66th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 13–712th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+107 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.