Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds13
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints29
- Anthony DavisAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–127
- Q413.1shot clock turnover110–127
- Q435.0Max Christie defensive rebound110–127
- Q437.1Grant Williams misses 28-foot three point jumper110–127
- Q446.1Grant Williams defensive rebound110–127
- Q450.1Skylar Mays misses 16-foot pullup jump shot110–127
- Q458.2Dwight Powell kicked ball violation110–127
- Q41:12A.J. Lawson makes driving layup (Brandon Williams assists)110–127
- Q41:12Dwight Powell offensive rebound108–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:13Derrick Jones Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 41 – 42 LAL · DAL 41% → 49% +8DAL 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q24:59Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)DAL 41 – 45 LAL · LAL 51% → 59% +8LAL 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q23:35D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)DAL 43 – 50 LAL · LAL 60% → 67% +8LAL 60% → 67%+8 pts
- Q39:17D'Angelo Russell makes 24-foot three point shot (Taurean Prince assists)DAL 59 – 67 LAL · LAL 64% → 72% +8LAL 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q38:05LeBron James makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)DAL 62 – 72 LAL · LAL 70% → 78% +8LAL 70% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DAL 50%
- Fair odds
- DAL -107
- LAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 118.8 – 118.3 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +13 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +3 Elo | DAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 114.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 115.416th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.119th of 30 |
| 10th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 111.023rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.3 | Pace | 102.56th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 14–712th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.