Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints26
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds17
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints43
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Drew EubanksRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–115
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound113–115
- Q40.0DeMar DeRozan misses 31-foot jump bank shot113–115
- Q41.0Jusuf Nurkic enters the game for Keita Bates-Diop113–115
- Q41.0Keita Bates-Diop personal foul113–115
- Q41.1Keita Bates-Diop enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic113–115
- Q41.1Bulls Full timeout113–115
- Q41.1Kevin Durant makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)113–115
- Q46.1Alex Caruso personal take foul113–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:30Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Drew Eubanks assists)CHI 107 – 108 PHX · PHX 37% → 60% +23PHX 37% → 60%+23 pts
- Q449.1DeMar DeRozan makes 11-foot pullup jump shotCHI 111 – 110 PHX · CHI 34% → 65% +31CHI 34% → 65%+31 pts
- Q429.1Kevin Durant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)CHI 111 – 113 PHX · PHX 31% → 85% +55PHX 31% → 85%+55 pts
- Q422.2DeMar DeRozan makes 10-foot two point shotCHI 113 – 113 PHX · CHI 11% → 49% +38CHI 11% → 49%+38 pts
- Q41.1Kevin Durant makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)CHI 113 – 115 PHX · PHX 50% → >99% +50PHX 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 61%
- Fair odds
- PHX -136
- CHI +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.4 – 113.8 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | +82 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +75 Elo | PHX 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 116.113th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 114.215th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.911th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 115.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 113.516th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.7 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–13 | Road vs home | 13–1120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.