Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints18
- Nikola VucevicAssists4
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints34
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–109
- Q48.0shot clock turnover91–109
- Q432.0shot clock turnover91–109
- Q454.0Dean Wade defensive rebound91–109
- Q455.1Coby White misses driving layup91–109
- Q41:01Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)91–109
- Q41:21Caris LeVert defensive rebound91–106
- Q41:23Dalen Terry misses driving layup91–106
- Q41:34Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 291–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38.0Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 75 – 80 CLE · CHI 16% → 25% +9CHI 16% → 25%+9 pts
- Q410:30Andre Drummond makes tip shotCHI 79 – 80 CLE · CHI 31% → 39% +8CHI 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q49:26Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CHI 81 – 83 CLE · CLE 51% → 65% +14CLE 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q48:19Donovan Mitchell makes 1-foot two point shot (Max Strus assists)CHI 81 – 87 CLE · CLE 74% → 81% +7CLE 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q46:29Caris LeVert makes 23-foot three point jumperCHI 84 – 93 CLE · CLE 83% → 92% +8CLE 83% → 92%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4.5
- CLE 67%
- Fair odds
- CLE -170
- CHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 108.1 – 112.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +49 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +122 Elo | CLE 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 113.220th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 111.35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.911th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 112.520th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 110.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 12–816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.