Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points26
- Luke KennardAssists6
- Santi AldamaRebounds8
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints20
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–125
- Q422.0Dalen Terry makes free throw 2 of 296–125
- Q422.0Bulls offensive team rebound96–124
- Q422.0Dalen Terry misses free throw 1 of 296–124
- Q422.0Ziaire Williams personal foul96–124
- Q428.1Ziaire Williams makes two point shot96–124
- Q432.0Ziaire Williams offensive rebound94–124
- Q433.1Scotty Pippen Jr. misses 5-foot two point shot94–124
- Q433.1Scotty Pippen Jr. offensive rebound94–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:08Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 45 – 50 CHI · MEM 20% → 27% +7MEM 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q310:03Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)MEM 48 – 51 CHI · MEM 25% → 32% +8MEM 25% → 32%+8 pts
- Q37:51Coby White makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Vucevic assists)MEM 55 – 58 CHI · CHI 59% → 68% +9CHI 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q37:29Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)MEM 55 – 61 CHI · CHI 68% → 76% +8CHI 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q36:58Alex Caruso makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)MEM 55 – 64 CHI · CHI 76% → 83% +7CHI 76% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 62%
- Fair odds
- CHI -172
- MEM +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 106.4 – 110.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +21 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +83 Elo | CHI 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 110.227th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.2 | Margin | −2.123rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 111.223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.4 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 13–1019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.