Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points36
- Xavier TillmanAssists6
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds7
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Mike ConleyAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–118
- Q410.1shot clock turnover103–118
- Q433.0Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound103–118
- Q436.1Vince Williams Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper103–118
- Q438.1Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns103–118
- Q438.1Wendell Moore Jr. enters the game for Rudy Gobert103–118
- Q438.1Luka Garza enters the game for Anthony Edwards103–118
- Q438.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound103–118
- Q439.1Karl-Anthony Towns blocks David Roddy 's 4-foot two point shot103–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:32Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Xavier Tillman assists)MEM 76 – 73 MIN · MEM 38% → 49% +11MEM 38% → 49%+11 pts
- Q32:16Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Xavier Tillman assists)MEM 81 – 75 MIN · MEM 50% → 61% +11MEM 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q317.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MEM 84 – 81 MIN · MIN 36% → 48% +12MIN 36% → 48%+12 pts
- Q410:33Mike Conley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MEM 89 – 88 MIN · MIN 42% → 56% +13MIN 42% → 56%+13 pts
- Q48:54Mike Conley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MEM 89 – 93 MIN · MIN 64% → 76% +13MIN 64% → 76%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6.5
- MIN 74%
- Fair odds
- MIN -236
- MEM +236 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 104.5 – 111.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −29 | +54 | MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +180 Elo | MIN 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 113.421st of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 107.51st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.0 | Margin | +5.84th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 112.919th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 107.11st of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 16–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−29 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring strain−4 Elo
Timberwolves
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.