Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints27
- Kyle AndersonAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints32
- Killian HayesAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–117
- Q40.0Timberwolves defensive team rebound124–117
- Q41.0Mike Muscala misses 6-foot two point shot124–117
- Q45.1Ausar Thompson defensive rebound124–117
- Q48.1Jordan McLaughlin misses free throw 2 of 2124–117
- Q48.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound124–117
- Q48.1Jordan McLaughlin misses free throw 1 of 2124–117
- Q48.1Jaden Ivey personal foul124–117
- Q414.1Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot three pointer124–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:40Karl-Anthony Towns makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 42 – 42 DET · MIN 67% → 73% +6MIN 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q32:52Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot three point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)MIN 91 – 88 DET · DET 17% → 25% +8DET 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q322.1Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMIN 98 – 90 DET · MIN 81% → 88% +7MIN 81% → 88%+7 pts
- Q411:25Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three pointer (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 101 – 92 DET · MIN 84% → 91% +7MIN 84% → 91%+7 pts
- Q43:56Jaden Ivey makes 25-foot three point shot (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)MIN 115 – 109 DET · DET 3% → 10% +6DET 3% → 10%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -11
- MIN 86%
- Fair odds
- MIN -327
- DET +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 118.2 – 109.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1324 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | −37 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +309 Elo | MIN 85.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 76.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 111.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.3 | Points allowed | 122.627th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.8 | Margin | −10.829th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 118.928th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.9 | Pace | 102.57th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 2–1730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.