Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds11
Grizzlies- Vince Williams Jr.Points24
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Assists5
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–116
- Q40.2shot clock turnover107–116
- Q424.2Draymond Green out of bounds bad pass turnover107–116
- Q426.0Luke Kennard makes free throw 2 of 2107–116
- Q426.0Luke Kennard makes free throw 1 of 2107–115
- Q426.0Jonathan Kuminga personal take foul107–114
- Q431.2Stephen Curry makes 29-foot three pointer107–114
- Q436.1GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2104–114
- Q436.1GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2104–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q356.1David Roddy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)GS 86 – 85 MEM · MEM 33% → 45% +11MEM 33% → 45%+11 pts
- Q410:51Jacob Gilyard makes 28-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)GS 88 – 90 MEM · MEM 44% → 57% +13MEM 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q410:34Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 91 – 90 MEM · GS 42% → 56% +13GS 42% → 56%+13 pts
- Q49:03GG Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)GS 94 – 98 MEM · MEM 54% → 67% +14MEM 54% → 67%+14 pts
- Q47:52GG Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)GS 96 – 103 MEM · MEM 69% → 81% +12MEM 69% → 81%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- GS 52%
- Fair odds
- GS -111
- MEM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.0 – 115.2 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −39 | GS: Usual rotation · MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +14 Elo | GS 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 108.129th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 113.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −5.325th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 106.029th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 111.28th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 3–1528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−39 Elo- Derrick Rose injury/illness−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.