Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints24
- Nikola VucevicAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints31
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Chris BoucherRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–110
- Q48.1Coby White defensive rebound116–110
- Q410.1RJ Barrett misses 26-foot three point jumper116–110
- Q412.1Scottie Barnes offensive rebound116–110
- Q414.0Scottie Barnes misses finger roll layup116–110
- Q419.1Patrick Williams enters the game for Nikola Vucevic116–110
- Q419.1RJ Barrett enters the game for Bruce Brown116–110
- Q419.1Raptors Full timeout116–110
- Q419.1Coby White makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot116–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:41Bruce Brown makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)CHI 103 – 105 TOR · TOR 48% → 61% +13TOR 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q42:46Alex Caruso makes 22-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 108 – 107 TOR · CHI 34% → 60% +25CHI 34% → 60%+25 pts
- Q42:21Scottie Barnes makes two point shotCHI 108 – 109 TOR · TOR 39% → 58% +19TOR 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q42:08Coby White makes 13-foot pullup jump shotCHI 110 – 109 TOR · CHI 41% → 61% +20CHI 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q41:45DeMar DeRozan makes 11-foot two point shotCHI 112 – 109 TOR · CHI 62% → 80% +18CHI 62% → 80%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1
- CHI 54%
- Fair odds
- CHI -126
- TOR +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.4 – 112.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +18 | +12 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +25 Elo | CHI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 115.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 116.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −1.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 113.815th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 115.020th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–13 | Road vs home | 10–1021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.