Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints16
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists5
- Tyler HerroRebounds7
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points28
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists9
- RJ BarrettRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–121
- Q45.1shot clock turnover97–121
- Q429.1Cole Swider bad pass (Garrett Temple steals)97–121
- Q438.1Javon Freeman-Liberty makes two point shot97–121
- Q438.1Javon Freeman-Liberty offensive rebound97–119
- Q439.1Javon Freeman-Liberty misses two point shot97–119
- Q454.2Nikola Jovic bad pass (Jalen McDaniels steals)97–119
- Q458.1Nikola Jovic defensive rebound97–119
- Q41:00Jalen McDaniels misses 25-foot three point shot97–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:34Gary Trent Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jontay Porter assists)MIA 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 41% → 47% +6TOR 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q19:57Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Scottie Barnes assists)MIA 0 – 8 TOR · TOR 52% → 58% +6TOR 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q18:52Immanuel Quickley makes 22-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)MIA 2 – 13 TOR · TOR 58% → 65% +6TOR 58% → 65%+6 pts
- Q17:03Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)MIA 9 – 18 TOR · TOR 55% → 61% +6TOR 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q12:15Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)MIA 18 – 32 TOR · TOR 67% → 73% +6TOR 67% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 62%
- Fair odds
- MIA -144
- TOR +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 114.4 – 111.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +4 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +84 Elo | MIA 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 115.017th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 116.818th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.822nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 113.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 115.323rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 9–1023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.