Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints31
- Patrick BeverleyAssists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds7
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Pascal SiakamAssists10
- Pascal SiakamRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–134
- Q47.1Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound122–134
- Q412.1Paul Reed misses 25-foot three point shot122–134
- Q416.0Andrew Nembhard lost ball turnover (Ricky Council IV steals)122–134
- Q419.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound122–134
- Q421.1Ricky Council IV misses free throw 1 of 1122–134
- Q421.1Andrew Nembhard shooting foul122–134
- Q421.1Ricky Council IV makes two point shot (Furkan Korkmaz assists)122–134
- Q425.0Bennedict Mathurin lost ball turnover (Paul Reed steals)120–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:22Joel Embiid makes 2-foot two point shot (Danuel House Jr. assists)PHI 15 – 21 IND · PHI 38% → 45% +7PHI 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q13:35Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)PHI 15 – 26 IND · IND 60% → 66% +6IND 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q28:20Obi Toppin makes 26-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)PHI 34 – 47 IND · IND 67% → 74% +7IND 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q25:05Pascal Siakam makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)PHI 44 – 54 IND · IND 61% → 69% +7IND 61% → 69%+7 pts
- Q21:33Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)PHI 56 – 70 IND · IND 73% → 80% +7IND 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 60%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- IND +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 121.8 – 119.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +71 | +3 | PHI: Missing Tobias Harris −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +72 Elo | PHI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 124.32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 122.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.3 | Margin | +1.412th of 30 |
| 6th of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 118.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 117.426th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 104.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 13–916th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+71 Elo- Tobias Harris illness−20 Elo
Pacers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.