Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints36
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Marcus Morris Sr.Rebounds9
Magic- Wendell Carter Jr.Points25
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–109
- Q421.0Jett Howard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)124–109
- Q434.0Terquavion Smith makes 29-foot three point jumper (Furkan Korkmaz assists)124–106
- Q439.1Trevelin Queen makes 1-foot dunk (Moritz Wagner assists)121–106
- Q446.2Terquavion Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)121–104
- Q455.0Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2118–104
- Q455.0Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2118–103
- Q455.0KJ Martin personal foul118–102
- Q41:04Kelly Oubre Jr. makes tip shot118–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:30Joe Ingles makes 25-foot three point shot (Cole Anthony assists)PHI 43 – 47 ORL · ORL 42% → 50% +8ORL 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q27:15Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointer (Nicolas Batum assists)PHI 46 – 47 ORL · PHI 50% → 57% +8PHI 50% → 57%+8 pts
- Q26:18Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumperPHI 49 – 50 ORL · PHI 50% → 57% +8PHI 50% → 57%+8 pts
- Q33:57Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)PHI 82 – 73 ORL · PHI 77% → 84% +7PHI 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q32:25Wendell Carter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)PHI 82 – 76 ORL · ORL 15% → 23% +8ORL 15% → 23%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 65%
- Fair odds
- PHI -165
- ORL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 113.6 – 109.8 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +94 | −19 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +106 Elo | PHI 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 112.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 111.16th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +0.914th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 110.224th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 109.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 13–46th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+94 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.