Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Goga BitadzeRebounds10
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints26
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–106
- Q40.0(00:00) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)104–106
- Q40.1Dejounte Murray makes 17-foot pullup jump shot104–106
- Q49.0Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Suggs assists)104–104
- Q426.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2101–104
- Q426.1Joe Ingles enters the game for Chuma Okeke101–103
- Q426.1Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2101–103
- Q426.1Chuma Okeke personal foul101–102
- Q439.1Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound101–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:43Paolo Banchero makes driving layupORL 97 – 96 ATL · ORL 42% → 59% +17ORL 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q41:41Dejounte Murray makes 7-foot two point shotORL 97 – 100 ATL · ATL 61% → 80% +19ATL 61% → 80%+19 pts
- Q41:24Markelle Fultz makes driving layupORL 99 – 100 ATL · ORL 18% → 38% +20ORL 18% → 38%+20 pts
- Q49.0Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 104 – 104 ATL · ORL <1% → 50% +50ORL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- Q40.1Dejounte Murray makes 17-foot pullup jump shotORL 104 – 106 ATL · ATL 50% → 100% +50ATL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 57%
- Fair odds
- ORL -103
- ATL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.9 – 116.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +10 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +48 Elo | ORL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 121.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 123.529th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.123rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 118.227th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 7–1124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.