San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints33
- Devin VassellAssists9
- Jeremy SochanRebounds8
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints70
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–133
- Q47.0Blake Wesley makes two point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)123–133
- Q411.1Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound121–133
- Q414.1Terquavion Smith misses driving floating jump shot121–133
- Q426.1Jeremy Sochan makes 28-foot three point shot (Devin Vassell assists)121–133
- Q432.1Zach Collins defensive rebound118–133
- Q435.2Ricky Council IV misses 16-foot pullup jump shot118–133
- Q450.1Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound118–133
- Q453.1Zach Collins misses 26-foot three point jumper118–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:10Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotSA 12 – 5 PHI · SA 25% → 31% +5SA 25% → 31%+5 pts
- Q19:20Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)SA 14 – 8 PHI · PHI 65% → 71% +6PHI 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17:23Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 19 – 16 PHI · SA 20% → 25% +5SA 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q15:29Devin Vassell makes 27-foot step back jumpshotSA 24 – 21 PHI · SA 20% → 25% +5SA 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q11:01Doug McDermott makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cedi Osman assists)SA 35 – 32 PHI · SA 22% → 27% +6SA 22% → 27%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -11.5
- PHI 86%
- Fair odds
- PHI -441
- SA +441 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.8 – 122.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +111 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +318 Elo | PHI 86.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 80.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 81.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.5 | Points scored | 119.56th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 111.28th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.9 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 117.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 109.65th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 16–69th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+111 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.