Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints25
- Terry RozierAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–89
- Q415.1Joel Embiid defensive rebound97–89
- Q418.2Brandon Miller misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot97–89
- Q425.176ers delay of game violation97–89
- Q425.1Danuel House Jr. makes free throw 2 of 297–89
- Q425.1Tobias Harris enters the game for Furkan Korkmaz96–89
- Q425.1Danuel House Jr. makes free throw 1 of 296–89
- Q425.1Miles Bridges personal take foul95–89
- Q427.0Tyrese Maxey enters the game for Terquavion Smith95–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:03JT Thor makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)PHI 66 – 66 CHA · CHA 22% → 32% +10CHA 22% → 32%+10 pts
- Q37.0Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)PHI 69 – 73 CHA · CHA 37% → 49% +12CHA 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q410:45Tobias Harris makes 9-foot two point shotPHI 75 – 75 CHA · PHI 57% → 66% +8PHI 57% → 66%+8 pts
- Q48:57Danuel House Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 80 – 75 CHA · PHI 73% → 84% +11PHI 73% → 84%+11 pts
- Q47:21Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)PHI 82 – 78 CHA · CHA 10% → 19% +9CHA 10% → 19%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -12.5
- PHI 88%
- Fair odds
- PHI -416
- CHA +416 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 120.2 – 109.4 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1342 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +107 | −69 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +353 Elo | PHI 88.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 79.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 108.828th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 120.424th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | −11.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 108.427th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 119.930th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 5–1326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+107 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.