Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints27
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points30
- Luke KennardAssists6
- David RoddyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–107
- Q40.2Magic offensive team rebound106–107
- Q40.2Joe Ingles misses 26-foot three point jumper106–107
- Q44.1Joe Ingles enters the game for Anthony Black106–107
- Q44.1David Roddy enters the game for Ziaire Williams106–107
- Q44.1Xavier Tillman enters the game for Luke Kennard106–107
- Q44.1Magic Full timeout106–107
- Q44.1shot clock turnover106–107
- Q428.1Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2106–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q334.1Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 84 – 89 MEM · ORL 20% → 30% +10ORL 20% → 30%+10 pts
- Q43:05Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 3-foot two point shotORL 100 – 105 MEM · MEM 73% → 85% +12MEM 73% → 85%+12 pts
- Q42:54Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerORL 103 – 105 MEM · ORL 14% → 33% +19ORL 14% → 33%+19 pts
- Q41:21Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 13-foot hook shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)ORL 103 – 107 MEM · MEM 73% → 89% +16MEM 73% → 89%+16 pts
- Q428.1Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2ORL 106 – 107 MEM · ORL 15% → 30% +15ORL 15% → 30%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- MEM 51%
- Fair odds
- MEM -103
- ORL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 107.1 – 107.3 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | −26 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +10 Elo | MEM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 107.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 112.913th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 106.130th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 17th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 4–1527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−26 Elo- Derrick Rose strained left hamstring−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.