Miami Heat at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints22
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints20
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–105
- Q417.0Trevelin Queen defensive rebound87–105
- Q420.0Jett Howard blocks Josh Richardson 's 4-foot layup87–105
- Q434.1Josh Richardson defensive rebound87–105
- Q439.0Chuma Okeke misses 28-foot step back jumpshot87–105
- Q456.0Chuma Okeke defensive rebound87–105
- Q459.1Josh Richardson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot87–105
- Q41:09Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 287–105
- Q41:09Magic offensive team rebound87–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q253.1Franz Wagner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)MIA 42 – 48 ORL · ORL 58% → 66% +8ORL 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q310:56Jimmy Butler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 49 – 50 ORL · MIA 39% → 48% +9MIA 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q310:14Jimmy Butler makes 24-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 52 – 52 ORL · MIA 42% → 51% +9MIA 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q310:00Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)MIA 52 – 55 ORL · ORL 49% → 58% +9ORL 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q37:40Franz Wagner makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Markelle Fultz assists)MIA 56 – 62 ORL · ORL 59% → 68% +9ORL 59% → 68%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -105
- ORL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 107.3 – 106.9 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | −14 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 111.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 111.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 110.424th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 109.95th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.615th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 13–510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.