Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints22
- Dejounte MurrayAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints25
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–108
- Q42.0Clint Capela enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic109–108
- Q42.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Josh Richardson109–108
- Q42.0Heat Full timeout109–108
- Q42.0Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three pointer109–108
- Q45.2Dejounte Murray defensive rebound106–108
- Q48.0Tyler Herro misses 13-foot two point shot106–108
- Q430.0Bogdan Bogdanovic makes free throw 2 of 2106–108
- Q430.0Bogdan Bogdanovic makes free throw 1 of 2105–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:38Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 98 – 97 MIA · ATL 30% → 50% +19ATL 30% → 50%+19 pts
- Q41:54Jimmy Butler makes 1-foot driving floating jump shotATL 102 – 102 MIA · MIA 34% → 55% +20MIA 34% → 55%+20 pts
- Q41:06Bam Adebayo makes 6-foot two point shotATL 102 – 105 MIA · MIA 67% → 87% +20MIA 67% → 87%+20 pts
- Q435.1Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)ATL 104 – 108 MIA · MIA 70% → 97% +27MIA 70% → 97%+27 pts
- Q42.0Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three pointerATL 109 – 108 MIA · ATL <1% → 98% +98ATL <1% → 98%+98 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7
- MIA 75%
- Fair odds
- MIA -252
- ATL +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.2 – 119.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +22 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +193 Elo | MIA 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.0 | Points scored | 111.526th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.0 | Points allowed | 110.95th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.714th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 112.520th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.6 | Pace | 98.828th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 12–714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.