Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Sam MerrillPoints26
- Donovan MitchellAssists13
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints18
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–99
- Q421.1Chuma Okeke makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trevelin Queen assists)126–99
- Q430.0shot clock turnover126–96
- Q452.0Tristan Thompson defensive rebound126–96
- Q454.0Trevelin Queen misses free throw 2 of 2126–96
- Q454.0Trevelin Queen makes free throw 1 of 2126–96
- Q454.0Craig Porter shooting foul126–95
- Q41:03shot clock turnover126–95
- Q41:04(01:04) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)126–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:11Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 5 – 0 ORL · CLE 69% → 75% +5CLE 69% → 75%+5 pts
- Q19:01Isaac Okoro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 10 – 3 ORL · CLE 73% → 78% +5CLE 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q17:51Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 14 – 5 ORL · CLE 76% → 81% +5CLE 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q17:09Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 18 – 7 ORL · CLE 79% → 84% +4CLE 79% → 84%+4 pts
- Q12:10Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter assists)CLE 30 – 16 ORL · CLE 84% → 88% +4CLE 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5.5
- CLE 70%
- Fair odds
- CLE -191
- ORL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 110.1 – 105.1 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +72 | −9 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +150 Elo | CLE 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 111.725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 110.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +0.914th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 110.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 109.64th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 14–57th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.