Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints17
- Damian LillardAssists5
- Andre Jackson Jr.Rebounds8
Cavaliers- Georges NiangPoints33
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–135
- Q49.0Tristan Thompson defensive rebound95–135
- Q411.1AJ Green misses 24-foot three point jumper95–135
- Q420.0Craig Porter bad pass (Jae Crowder steals)95–135
- Q429.1Robin Lopez makes 8-foot two point shot95–135
- Q444.0Damian Jones personal foul93–135
- Q457.1Tristan Thompson makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Georges Niang assists)93–135
- Q41:01MarJon Beauchamp loose ball foul93–133
- Q41:01Cavaliers offensive team rebound93–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:20Jarrett Allen makes 6-foot two point shot (Max Strus assists)MIL 0 – 4 CLE · CLE 70% → 74% +4CLE 70% → 74%+4 pts
- Q110:14Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Isaac Okoro assists)MIL 2 – 9 CLE · CLE 74% → 79% +5CLE 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q11:04Pat Connaughton makes 30-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 17 – 28 CLE · MIL 11% → 15% +4MIL 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q128.2Pat Connaughton makes 23-foot three point jumper (MarJon Beauchamp assists)MIL 22 – 30 CLE · MIL 15% → 20% +5MIL 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q210:24Georges Niang makes 23-foot three pointer (Sam Merrill assists)MIL 22 – 37 CLE · CLE 87% → 90% +4CLE 87% → 90%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 66%
- Fair odds
- CLE -202
- MIL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.8 – 121.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | +53 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +119 Elo | CLE 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30125.0 | Points scored | 113.121st of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 110.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +2.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 112.420th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 110.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.7 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 13–815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.