Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints18
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints24
- Dejounte MurrayAssists5
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–95
- Q412.1shot clock turnover116–95
- Q435.0Tristan Thompson defensive rebound116–95
- Q438.0Bruno Fernando misses 25-foot three point jumper116–95
- Q447.1Garrison Mathews defensive rebound116–95
- Q449.1Pete Nance misses driving layup116–95
- Q41:12Craig Porter defensive rebound116–95
- Q41:14AJ Griffin misses 24-foot step back jumpshot116–95
- Q41:21Bruno Fernando defensive rebound116–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:50Isaac Okoro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 18 – 8 ATL · CLE 81% → 85% +4CLE 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q11:22Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)CLE 22 – 17 ATL · ATL 18% → 23% +5ATL 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q11:00Trae Young makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 22 – 20 ATL · ATL 23% → 28% +6ATL 23% → 28%+6 pts
- Q211:51Trae Young makes 24-foot three pointerCLE 25 – 23 ATL · ATL 23% → 28% +6ATL 23% → 28%+6 pts
- Q211:02Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 30 – 23 ATL · CLE 75% → 81% +5CLE 75% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 79%
- Fair odds
- CLE -231
- ATL +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.7 – 113.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +67 | +6 | CLE: Missing Caris LeVert −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +227 Elo | CLE 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 120.74th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 122.627th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −2.023rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 115.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 117.827th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.9 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 8–1124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+67 Elo- Caris LeVert right wrist sprain−1 Elo
Hawks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.