Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points27
- Luke KennardAssists7
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds10
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints29
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–100
- Q49.1John Konchar offensive rebound108–100
- Q414.0Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper108–100
- Q435.1RJ Barrett personal foul108–100
- Q441.1RJ Barrett makes two point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)108–100
- Q444.1John Konchar lost ball turnover (Thaddeus Young steals)108–98
- Q447.0John Konchar offensive rebound108–98
- Q449.1John Konchar misses layup108–98
- Q41:11RJ Barrett out of bounds bad pass turnover108–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:32Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Xavier Tillman assists)MEM 37 – 32 TOR · MEM 48% → 55% +8MEM 48% → 55%+8 pts
- Q26:23Chris Boucher makes 25-foot three point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)MEM 40 – 35 TOR · TOR 37% → 44% +8TOR 37% → 44%+8 pts
- Q23:05Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)MEM 48 – 42 TOR · TOR 33% → 40% +8TOR 33% → 40%+8 pts
- Q21:07Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)MEM 53 – 44 TOR · MEM 60% → 69% +8MEM 60% → 69%+8 pts
- Q38:51Scottie Barnes makes 27-foot three point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)MEM 61 – 55 TOR · TOR 29% → 37% +9TOR 29% → 37%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2.5
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -144
- MEM +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.8 – 114.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | −5 | MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +69 Elo | TOR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 114.718th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 116.618th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.8 | Margin | −1.923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 113.418th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.615th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 10–1123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−48 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring strain−4 Elo
Raptors
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.