Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints20
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists11
- RJ BarrettRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints38
- Julius RandleAssists10
- Julius RandleRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–126
- Q41.1shot clock turnover100–126
- Q418.2Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound100–126
- Q421.1Garrett Temple misses layup100–126
- Q428.0Garrett Temple offensive rebound100–126
- Q428.0Jalen McDaniels misses 23-foot three point jumper100–126
- Q430.1Garrett Temple offensive rebound100–126
- Q432.2Jericho Sims blocks Garrett Temple 's 4-foot layup100–126
- Q450.1Precious Achiuwa out of bounds bad pass turnover100–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:35Jalen Brunson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)TOR 27 – 21 NY · NY 49% → 56% +7NY 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q159.1Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)TOR 31 – 28 NY · NY 55% → 62% +7NY 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q27:04Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 42 – 41 NY · TOR 28% → 35% +7TOR 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q226.1Julius Randle makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Jalen Brunson assists)TOR 55 – 59 NY · NY 68% → 75% +7NY 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q310:28Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 59 – 64 NY · NY 70% → 78% +7NY 70% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7.5
- NY 77%
- Fair odds
- NY -243
- TOR +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.3 – 118.1 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | +42 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +210 Elo | NY 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 114.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 110.85th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 115.411th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.6 | Pace | 99.526th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 306–15 | Road vs home | 13–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.