Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Vince Williams Jr.Points25
- Jacob GilyardAssists7
- John KoncharRebounds10
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints18
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–96
- Q420.1GG Jackson defensive rebound105–96
- Q423.0Tyler Herro misses 24-foot step back jumpshot105–96
- Q442.1Vince Williams Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2105–96
- Q442.1Terry Rozier enters the game for Duncan Robinson104–96
- Q442.1Vince Williams Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2104–96
- Q442.1Jimmy Butler loose ball foul103–96
- Q442.1Grizzlies defensive team rebound103–96
- Q443.1Duncan Robinson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot103–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:58Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three pointerMEM 94 – 90 MIA · MIA 13% → 27% +15MIA 13% → 27%+15 pts
- Q42:27Caleb Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MEM 96 – 93 MIA · MIA 10% → 28% +18MIA 10% → 28%+18 pts
- Q42:13Scotty Pippen Jr. makes driving layupMEM 98 – 93 MIA · MEM 74% → 87% +13MEM 74% → 87%+13 pts
- Q42:01Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 98 – 96 MIA · MIA 12% → 34% +22MIA 12% → 34%+22 pts
- Q41:05Vince Williams Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 101 – 96 MIA · MEM 74% → 95% +22MEM 74% → 95%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 65%
- Fair odds
- MIA -201
- MEM +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 103.9 – 109.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +18 | MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −5, Santi Aldama −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +107 Elo | MIA 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 110.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 110.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.5 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 98.629th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 12–816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−44 Elo- Derrick Rose strained left hamstring−5 Elo
- Santi Aldama sore right knee−3 Elo
Heat
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.