Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints17
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists6
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints22
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–112
- Q43.0shot clock turnover89–112
- Q425.1Rayan Rupert defensive rebound89–112
- Q428.1Ben Sheppard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot89–112
- Q435.0Duop Reath makes free throw 2 of 289–112
- Q435.0Duop Reath makes free throw 1 of 289–111
- Q435.0Enrique Freeman shooting foul89–110
- Q442.1Johnny Furphy personal foul89–110
- Q452.1Ben Sheppard makes two point shot (James Johnson assists)89–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q239.1Anfernee Simons makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 36 – 45 POR · POR 57% → 65% +8POR 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q310:30Anfernee Simons makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)IND 44 – 48 POR · POR 43% → 52% +9POR 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q39:49Toumani Camara makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)IND 44 – 51 POR · POR 52% → 61% +9POR 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q38:32Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 49 – 53 POR · IND 38% → 47% +9IND 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q36:27Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 52 – 58 POR · POR 51% → 61% +10POR 51% → 61%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -5.5
- ML IND -205 / POR +170
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- IND: Elo 59.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- IND -181
- POR +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.0 – 113.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +8 | +39 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +68 Elo | IND 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 109.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 114.620th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −5.626th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 108.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 114.326th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.019th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–24 | 29–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–2 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.