Orlando Magic at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints24
- Franz WagnerAssists3
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds7
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints23
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–119
- Q413.1shot clock turnover90–119
- Q437.1Trail Blazers defensive team rebound90–119
- Q437.1Jett Howard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot90–119
- Q440.2Jett Howard offensive rebound90–119
- Q444.0Trevelin Queen misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot90–119
- Q458.1Jabari Walker makes 17-foot two point shot90–119
- Q41:07Caleb Houstan makes 12-foot two point shot (Anthony Black assists)90–117
- Q41:25Magic defensive team rebound88–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:30Jabari Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)ORL 40 – 36 POR · POR 24% → 30% +6POR 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q28:54Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)ORL 40 – 39 POR · POR 30% → 37% +7POR 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q23:36Scoot Henderson makes 27-foot three pointerORL 46 – 56 POR · POR 59% → 67% +8POR 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q23:13Franz Wagner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 49 – 56 POR · ORL 33% → 41% +8ORL 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q36:05Dalano Banton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)ORL 62 – 77 POR · POR 79% → 86% +7POR 79% → 86%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML ORL -190 / POR +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- ORL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 47.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -170
- POR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 108.5 – 103.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +26 | ORL: Missing Jalen Suggs −1 · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +20 Elo | POR 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.1 | Points scored | 108.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Points allowed | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −7.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 107.726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 114.727th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 10–1323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−2 Elo- Jalen Suggs left quad contusion−1 Elo
Trail Blazers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–23 | 26–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–10 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 20–28 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–1 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.