Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints21
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds12
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints20
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–79
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–79
- Q424.0Jett Howard makes 25-foot three pointer (Tristan da Silva assists)101–79
- Q434.1Kris Murray makes free throw 1 of 1101–76
- Q434.1Cory Joseph shooting foul100–76
- Q434.1Kris Murray makes driving layup (Rayan Rupert assists)100–76
- Q440.1Duop Reath defensive rebound98–76
- Q443.1Trevelin Queen misses driving layup98–76
- Q459.0Kris Murray makes 2-foot two point shot (Rayan Rupert assists)98–76
- Q41:10Cory Joseph makes two point shot96–76
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:32Toumani Camara makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 33 – 31 ORL · POR 32% → 39% +7POR 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q23:12Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 42 – 35 ORL · POR 46% → 54% +8POR 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q22:18Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 45 – 37 ORL · POR 49% → 57% +8POR 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q35:18Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)POR 62 – 54 ORL · ORL 26% → 35% +9ORL 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q32:55Toumani Camara makes 2-foot layup (Dalano Banton assists)POR 66 – 58 ORL · POR 61% → 68% +7POR 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML POR +215 / ORL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5.5
- ORL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 70.4%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- ORL -228
- POR +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 103.0 – 109.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −20 | −26 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Missing Cole Anthony −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +151 Elo | ORL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 103.930th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 104.42nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.4 | Margin | −0.515th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 106.029th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 106.53rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–16 | Road vs home | 14–89th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−20 Elo- Donovan Clingan sprained left ankle−8 Elo
Magic
−26 Elo- Cole Anthony illness−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–21 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 16–8 |
| Underdog | 22–18 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 18–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.