LA Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints23
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints23
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–89
- Q416.0Rayan Rupert makes 26-foot three pointer118–89
- Q428.1Kobe Brown makes dunk118–86
- Q428.1Kobe Brown offensive rebound116–86
- Q431.1Bones Hyland misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot116–86
- Q449.2Duop Reath makes free throw 2 of 2116–86
- Q449.2Duop Reath makes free throw 1 of 2116–85
- Q449.2Kobe Brown shooting foul116–84
- Q41:01Jabari Walker defensive rebound116–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:32Norman Powell makes 28-foot three point shot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 3 – 0 POR · LAC 72% → 77% +5LAC 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q110:53Ivica Zubac makes 5-foot two point shotLAC 5 – 3 POR · LAC 71% → 75% +3LAC 71% → 75%+3 pts
- Q19:23Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)LAC 12 – 5 POR · LAC 78% → 82% +4LAC 78% → 82%+4 pts
- Q15:41Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (James Harden assists)LAC 20 – 15 POR · LAC 74% → 79% +5LAC 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q15:23Scoot Henderson makes 29-foot three pointer (Shaedon Sharpe assists)LAC 20 – 18 POR · POR 21% → 26% +5POR 21% → 26%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML LAC -290 / POR +240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 68.9%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -253
- POR +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.0 – 106.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1345 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | −24 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −17, Donovan Clingan −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +138 Elo | LAC 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.4 | Points scored | 108.425th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.1 | Points allowed | 116.824th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −8.528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 107.326th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 115.726th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.911th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 20th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 8–1022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−24 Elo- Deni Avdija sprained right ankle−17 Elo
- Donovan Clingan sprained left ankle−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–15 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–4 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 14–25 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 5–1 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.