LA Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints27
- James HardenAssists14
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints18
- Dalano BantonAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–103
- Q40.1shot clock turnover116–103
- Q425.1Scoot Henderson makes 14-foot pullup jump shot116–103
- Q433.0Moses Brown defensive rebound116–101
- Q435.2Brandon Boston Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper116–101
- Q457.1Rayan Rupert makes 3-foot dunk116–101
- Q41:00Rayan Rupert defensive rebound116–99
- Q41:02Justin Minaya blocks Brandon Boston Jr. 's 14-foot pullup jump shot116–99
- Q41:19P.J. Tucker defensive rebound116–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:28Kris Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)LAC 4 – 10 POR · POR 40% → 47% +6POR 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q11:26Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)LAC 25 – 26 POR · POR 31% → 37% +6POR 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q211:40Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 30 – 28 POR · LAC 62% → 69% +7LAC 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q210:50Duop Reath makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)LAC 30 – 31 POR · POR 31% → 38% +7POR 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q210:22James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 33 – 31 POR · LAC 62% → 69% +7LAC 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 71%
- Fair odds
- LAC -202
- POR +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.9 – 108.5 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −29 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +155 Elo | LAC 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 107.728th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 115.817th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 107.129th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.1 | Pace | 99.319th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 11–2425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 2–0 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.