Atlanta Hawks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints21
- Dejounte MurrayAssists10
- Clint CapelaRebounds13
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints28
- James HardenAssists9
- Paul GeorgeRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–93
- Q421.0Mason Plumlee makes 5-foot dunk (Xavier Moon assists)110–93
- Q437.1Vit Krejci makes driving layup (Trent Forrest assists)110–91
- Q458.1Xavier Moon makes 9-foot pullup jump shot108–91
- Q458.1Xavier Moon offensive rebound108–89
- Q41:01Brandon Boston Jr. misses 14-foot jumper108–89
- Q41:07Mason Plumlee defensive rebound108–89
- Q41:10Garrison Mathews misses driving floating jump shot108–89
- Q41:26Trent Forrest defensive rebound108–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:55Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 27-foot three point shot (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 34 – 29 LAC · ATL 37% → 44% +7ATL 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q28:27Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniel Theis assists)ATL 39 – 34 LAC · LAC 48% → 55% +8LAC 48% → 55%+8 pts
- Q28:08Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trent Forrest assists)ATL 42 – 34 LAC · ATL 45% → 52% +8ATL 45% → 52%+8 pts
- Q26:24Wesley Matthews makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 49 – 38 LAC · ATL 54% → 61% +8ATL 54% → 61%+8 pts
- Q24:35Wesley Matthews makes 25-foot three point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 54 – 40 LAC · ATL 63% → 70% +7ATL 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 74%
- Fair odds
- LAC -242
- ATL +242 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.7 – 120.4 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | +3 | ATL: Missing Trae Young −36, Onyeka Okongwu −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +179 Elo | LAC 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 116.812th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 112.712th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.9 | Margin | +4.26th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 113.514th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.221st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 22–107th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−29 Elo- Trae Young left finger−36 Elo
- Onyeka Okongwu sprained left big toe−9 Elo
Clippers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.