Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints24
- DeMar DeRozanAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints22
- James HardenAssists10
- James HardenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–112
- Q44.1shot clock turnover102–112
- Q428.0Norman Powell defensive rebound102–112
- Q429.1Dalen Terry misses free throw 2 of 2102–112
- Q429.1Kobe Brown enters the game for Kawhi Leonard102–112
- Q429.1Bulls offensive team rebound102–112
- Q429.1Dalen Terry misses free throw 1 of 2102–112
- Q429.1Kawhi Leonard personal take foul102–112
- Q436.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 2102–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:55James Harden makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)CHI 71 – 72 LAC · LAC 52% → 62% +10LAC 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q31:02Bones Hyland makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)CHI 80 – 83 LAC · LAC 57% → 69% +11LAC 57% → 69%+11 pts
- Q37.1Coby White makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 85 – 83 LAC · CHI 39% → 51% +12CHI 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q411:06Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)CHI 85 – 88 LAC · LAC 57% → 69% +12LAC 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q410:20Bones Hyland makes 27-foot step back jumpshotCHI 85 – 91 LAC · LAC 69% → 80% +11LAC 69% → 80%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4.5
- LAC 68%
- Fair odds
- LAC -179
- CHI +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.1 – 115.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +20 | CHI: Usual rotation · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +130 Elo | LAC 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 117.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +4.75th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 99.620th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 21–87th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.